VICE PRESIDENT GRAHAM

VICE PRESIDENT GRAHAM

I have little doubt that Graham would already BE vice president, had Al Gore done the sensible thing last time. In retrospect, the notion that Lieberman would help more in FL than Graham is as asinine as any campaign decision ever made.

The Lieberman pick was too clever by half--a Hail Mary pass that was supposed to help with Florida, fund-raising and Gore's largely non-existent "Clinton problem." The obvious choice is usually best, and Gore missed the boat by trying to be too smart.

Teamo boss James P. Hoffa personally lobbied Kerry on behalf of Dick Gephardt with these words, "He needs somebody that's high profile, somebody that can go out and carry a state, somebody that has a constituency, somebody that can deliver." This is an accurate assessment, and it rules out political unknowns like Vlisack of IA. Hoffa's description fits Gephardt, but it fits Graham even better.

DO WHAT'S RIGHT

One huge factor--not mentioned above but certainly true of Dickie G--is fitness for the job. When Kerry tires of figuring out the geometry of a complicated pool shot, he may simply try to do what's right. Who would make the best president, if it came to that?

The answer is not John Edwards. You simply cannot claim that a first-term senator with no other experience in government is the most qualified to lead the country in time of war.

Graham is one of only a few who would possess instant credibility as commander-in-chief because of his service on the Senate Intelligence Committee. Graham has been near the center of power for a long time. Cheney has made a mess out of U.S. intelligence; Graham has the knowledge and background to restore needed credibility and efficiency to the CIA and related agencies.

This would be a sober, grey-haired administration. In a year that will likely turn on the question of who makes us feel safer, that's not a bad thing.

HIGH-PROFILE

You can argue that a complete unknown is acceptable as vice president because he or she will be famous anyway within a month. However, the issue is not simply name recognition but acceptance. Hoffa is right to argue that the VP should already have broad support before the pick. Johnson, Humphrey, Mondale and Gore all added heft because of their previous achievements. Graham has been a legislator, governor and senator. He has a distinguished and bipartisan reputation. He spent a lot of that popularity blowing the whistle on Bush's then-popular war policies, but events have proven him to be correct.

GOING OUT AND CARRYING A STATE

There are no slam-dunks here, although Byrd of WV and Breaux of LA are probably the closest to a sure thing. Graham, Edwards and Bayh would all turn red states competitive. But Graham is by far the winningest, and his state was the closest context last time out. Winning in Fla. will not be easy because of the GOP death-grip on the electoral machinery, and a Damned Yankee at the top of the ticket doesn't help. But this is Graham's home turf and he's never lost here.

Since contesting any red state involves risk, why not choose the one with the biggest reward? Bush-Cheney could afford to lose WV, IA, and LA. They would find the loss of Indiana or North Carolina harder to recover from, but still not impossible.

However, lose Florida, and it's game over, man.

FIRST DO NO HARM

Today, it looks like Dicky G. for VP.

For a guy like Kerry, who likes to keep the ball on the ground, Gephardt is the logical choice. An eagle scout as a young man--and a boy scout in public life--Dicky G. is the least likely candidate to produce any Ferraro-like distractions and surprises.

It's not at all clear that he can bring along Missouri, but his chances of doing so are better than Edwards' chances of carrying North Carolina, not because he is a more attractive candidate than Edwards but because Missouri is easier to win. More important, Gephardt is much more fully qualified to be vice-president than Edwards, who can point only to George Bush as an example of a candidate with as little experience as the first-termer from NC. Quayle, as he was trying to point out before getting hammered to the mat by Lloyd Bentsen's "I knew Jack Kennedy" riposte, had a full 12 years in the congress before presuming to the vice-presidency. (And it does matter. Quayle would have been more effective president than GW Bush).

I'd like to believe that the complete lack of buzz about Gen. Clark is part of an elaborate head-fake, but I fear that Kerry has dumped him from the list, perhaps because of Clark's complicity is spreading intern rumors about Kerry during the primary. Frankly, I think Kerry should learn to take a joke. A habit of low-road mud-slingin' politics is a good thing in a vice-presidential aspirant.

But Dickie G. is also no slouch when it comes to using the hatchet. His "miserable failure" mantra about Bush. still a most excellent Google bomb, certainly can bear more repetition. But Gephardt's greatest addition to the Kerry ticket is the boost he'll give across the board Democratic Party unity. The rank and file is more unified and outraged than the Democratic Party leadership, and Gephardt will help cement the base and the top of party together in every state of the union. His long-standing personal contacts with not only every Democratic congressman but also former Democratic congressional candidates, most of whom still hold elective office or are otherwise active in politics and his outstanding support from mainstream industrial and craft unions are simply unmatched by any other VP prospect, with the possible exceptions of Bill Clinton or Ted Kennedy.

Dick Gephardt is fully vetted and will be accepted as prima facie qualified by the jackals of the press corps. His politics are moderate. He will be a great fundraiser in every state. And he's a team player who's not afraid to swing the hatchet.

On the down side, he won't help much if at all with the Deanies, Greenies and Teenies. He lacks the TV pizzazz of either Edwards or Clark. Except in his own St. Louis district, he's made a habit of losing elections, as a two-time presidential aspirant and as GOP congressional whipping boy, c. 1994-2004.

But he won't HURT the ticket, and you can't say that with certainty about about any of the others. Edwards, Vilsack and Clark are all new to the national stage and would get a helluva working over by more than 3,000 dirt-digging reporters and their GOP allies.

Several other names have been floated, including GOP Sen. (and Clinton Defense Secretary) Cohen of Maine, former Senator Sam Nunn of GA, and Sen. Evan Bayh of IN. Of these, the Repubican Cohen is the most liberal.

Nunn would bring along another trainload of gravitas and serve (with President Carter) as an effective rebuttal to Zell "I want my name on a carrier" Miller. Kerry, with an ADA rating in the stratosphere, would do well to reach out to conservative Democrats. Nunn would be the best choice in this respect (looking both at politics and the good of the country). I don't think the Dems can carry GA, but the Nunn choice would certainly nail Ralph Reed's feet to the floor there.

Bayh has a famous name and a rock-crusher record of beating the GOP in a tough, tough state. In 1998, he cruised to a 64% victory statewide while Dickie G. was struggling to get 56% in the Democratic-leaning Missouri Third District. The last time the Dems won IN was 1964 ("Meet the Beatles"), buy Bayh could change that. He's got some liabilties but there is little doubt that this pick would give the GOP constipation all along the Chi-Pitts corridor. It's not clear how he would survive national press scrutiny.

The choice of a Nunn, Breaux or Bayh is tempting, but any of these might try the patience of what we can now call the Michael Moore wing of the party and produce an automatic GOP commercial where the two Dems would debate against each other. Dickie G. is an honest-to-god Democrat who is nevertheless known for listening to all sides and being desirious of finding the center of the road. I would prefer Clark or Graham, but Kerry has to spend four years with the guy if he wins and I think he likes Dickie G. the best of all.