HE LOOKS FRENCH

John Breaux is that rare politician who could deliver the election to John Kerry practically single-handedly and therefore deserves at least a look as a potential vice-presidential running mate.

Although decried by some Democrats for his centrist-right views, Breaux is in truth much more liberal than John McCain. He is similar to Bentsen and Lieberman. In the 2000 Congress, McCain's voting record received a 0--that's zero--from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action and a high 86 from the American Conservative Union. Breaux's scores were 50 and 40.

Like McCain, Breaux is one of only a few politicians who could deliver his home state. Whereas Edwards and Graham would put their states in play, Breaux on the ticket would win Lousiana. If everything else stayed the same--and allowing for GOP gains in the census--this would erase Bush's theoretical electoral college edge and begin the campaign with exactly 269 red states and 269 blue states. Even without a homerun ball in Florida, Ohio or Missouri, the Democrats could win simply claiming any of the small states that are rightfully theirs: WV, NH and NV.

Breaux is immensely popular in Lousiana and Washington. If he and Bush had been rival rush captains, Breaux's fraternity would have been larger. This was put to the test in the surprising post-November victory of Mary Landrieu in 2002 which was in many respects a duel between the credibility of the principal Democratic and GOP endorsers, Breaux and Bush.

Breaux's charm and warmth would be a welcome addition to the Kerry ticket. As a southern moderate, Breaux could make trouble for Bush throughout the south, esp. a few miles north in Arkansas and in the panhandle region of Florida. But his biggest contribution would be to allow John Kerry to concentrate on 49 other states.

KERRY TV CLICKING IN?

Two polls in two days from the battleground states of Fla and OH show Kerry in the lead. The seven point spread in Ohio is esp. notable since this state went GOP by four last round.

Very little from the wise guys in the press about the Kerry spots because they don't fit the Dems are stumblebums story line they're so enamored with. But the Kerry Campaign's decision to "go positive" may have been strategically very wise.

After all, the race is really about who's the better commander-in-chief, isn't it?

To the extent that it is, the race for vice-president may be the same. Clark is the standout in this category. John McCain is getting a lot of talk, but I can't help but see this as "what if Joe Dimaggio had played in Fenway Park"-style idle speculation.

Still, IF he McCain were the nominee, it would be game over, man. AZ's ten electoral votes--which are ordinarily safe GOP--would deliver the race to Kerry if all the other states voted as they did in 2000. But McCain's across the board appeal to independents and disaffected Republicans in every battleground state is just as important. Above all, I think the choice would reflect enormous credit upon Kerry, esp. when contrasted to the mean-spirited-working-on-toxic partisanship of today's GOP. The issue of international terrorism, which could become far more dangerous than even it is today, is really too important to be left to Karl Rove's next visual event or Tom Delay's next fundraising letter to the hate-blinded "base."

Like Kerry, McCain campaigns on his character rather than any particular issue. Looking at the latest Ohio poll, it's hard to fault that strategy.

THE CASE FOR GRAHAM

Florida seems to have tightened up, according to this Orlando Sentinel story. Scribes Mark Silva and Jim Stratton quote a poll that was fielded 4/29 through May 3 showing Kerry 48, Bush 46, Shitbird Nader 3, adding that said poll has been confirmed by others.

If this is really the Fla environment, then anyone in the Kerry Campaign with access to a pocket calculator would have to love Graham. He's the most popular politician in Fla history and most comfortable in a necktie with gators and oranges and such printed on it. That's gotta help come November.

If Bush loses Florida, he'll be in the outhouse looking up. There's basically no way he can make up that kind of electoral deficit except by doing something wildly improbable, like carrying California or Illinois and Penn.

Like the other JFK, Kerry may just do the math and lock down a key state. As with all southern states, winning Fla means getting a high turnout from blacks and slowing the flow of blood from the sizeable and significant peckerwood bloc. Getting more votes from Jews is NOT the key. If winning Florida is important to you, you put a Floridian on the ticket. And, as freshman Sen. Nelson himself has said, there's really only one choice.

Graham's assets do not end with Florida. While obviously not a thriller on TV, he is very knowledgeable, respected and risk-averse. If you're looking to stay away from the Howard Dean escaped mental patient scream, Graham's your man.

On the downside, many of the killer bees in the national press enjoy ridiculing Graham, and they'll have a daily supply of highly fertilized super soil fed to them daily. Like Gore, Graham is a dignified man with a distinguised record of service that can be twisted, trashed, and trivialized by the flesh-eaters on the campaign planes. In a memorable typo, ABC's The Note last year refered to Wesley Clark's 49th birthday, getting his age wrong by a decade. No one would make that mistake with Graham, whose sonorous gravity might weigh down, instead of lifting up, a ticket that's already pretty heavy on the gravitas sauce.

I think the atmospherics favor Clark. But one fact keeps bubbling up to the top: Win Florida and you win everything.

It's Clark

Dem radio address today, Meet the Press tomorrow...

...no accident.

Key variables:

Looks good as commander-in-chief. Voters will accept him as qualified. Clark leads the pack here, with serious competition only from Bill Clinton and John McCain, neither of whom will take the job.
Turning red state blue: Only a tiny handful of candidates, led by Breaux of LA and Byrd of WV, could for sure do this. Edwards, Gephardt and Graham would make their states more competitive, but no guarantees. Clark would put Arkansas in play and help with swing voters and Reagan Democrats everywhere.
Debate with Cheney Clark matches up perfectly, war record, healthy youthful appearance. Fourth purple heart and second silver star can't hurt the ticket.
National TV experience Clark is great on television; that's why CNN paid him more than he ever made as a four-star general. His primary campaign provided an excellent tune-up for the real thing.
Backup man, attack dog Clark doesn't have the natural appetite for this of a Howard Dean or the years of experience doing it of a southern politician, but he brings great dignity and credibility to the task.

It's Clark. Just gots to be.