BUSH, ROVE, TOILET-BOUND

That cracking sound you hear is the "Bush Wins" story line about to fall through the ice. Most of what The Note (ABC News) calls "The Gang of 500"--writers, pols, consultants and wiseacres who talk out of the corner of their mouths--thought until recently that Bush was unbeatable.

The crack Bush Team, led by the "genius" Karl Rove and backed by limitless GOP bucks--so the story line went--would grind the hapless Democrats into dust.

But the GOP is in trouble. They know it, and it's only a matter of time before the rest of the Washington Wise Guys figure it out.

One of the first to do so was CBS's political editor, Dick Meyer, who penned a column yesterday asking the heretical question, "Have Bush and Rove Lost Their Mojo?"

Within 24 hours, ABC News was reporting (via its influential insider online newsletter) "the consensus view...that Bush could lose."

It is natural fo think the incumbent president will win. That is why Kerry's eight-point lead over Bush is described as "small," while, under very similar circumstances in March 8, 1996, CNN interpreted a nine-point lead to mean that Clinton "would trounce likely GOP nominee Robert Dole (R-Kan.) in a head-to-head race today."

Bush is bad shape. He should be ahead, just as Clinton was. He has all the advantageous of incumbency, and he's running against the exhausted surviver of a contested primary, just as Clinton was. The notion that he was somehow victimized by all the Democratic primary contenders "beating up" on him is hooey. Dole, Buchanan and Forbes also beat up on Bill Clinton over the comparable time period.

The really rotten news for Bush is in the fine print of the Gallup survey, which shows him getting clobbered by Kerry in the so-called "purple states," which were decided by 5% or less. This confirms a state-by-state survey by Zogby International that projects a significant electoral vote lead for Kerry.

And if, as the just completed Miami Herald-St. Petersburg Times survey shows, Kerry wins Florida, there are only three words to describe the impact:

Game over, man.

EARLY ROUNDS TO KERRY

Bush is playing defense two days after dropping a very premature $10 million in TV advertising. When Election Day gets close, the Bush Campaign is going to wish it had that money back. True, they are loaded, but there's never enough. Somebody at the RNC should ask Joe Trippi what he thinks about dumping early money on TV for Dean (Hint: he calls it his biggest mistake).

Moreover, the Reps are probably going to wish they hadn't pulled the trigger so quickly with the 9/11 issue. Early exposure and controversy drains the issue of its emotional punch.

Instead of blaming the ad agency and getting on with their lives, they allowed the victim's outrage to become a two-day story. Their failure to do so proves how central 9/11 is to their strategy. As he did on the issue of gay marriage, Kerry deftly accused Bush of "trying to change the subject [from job losses] by waving the 9/11 shirt.

This campaign will be fought primarily in the free media. At this early stage of the campaign--well before undecided and swing voters have tuned in--the main value of paid advertising is to stimulate favorable news coverage. Ten million bucks lighter, the Bush Campaign achieved only limited success, while John Kerry, saving every penny until it matters most, has matched or beat the president through the last few news cycles.

Tomorrow's chat shows are studded with prospective John Kerry running mates, evidence that Bush has so far failed to frame the debate.