MARY BETH TELLS A FIB

Kerry's campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, wisely disclaimed any hopes for a 7-state sweep on Mini-Tuesday, saying "It's never happened before."

Actually, it has happened before.

First, it happened in 1976, when Jimmy Carter started off a sparkling drive for the nomination by winning IA and NH back to back. Asterisk: Carter beat all the candidates in IA but came in second to a very sizeable "uncommitted" vote. Mo Udall, who ran some very close seconds, nevertheless failed to win a single primary. Scoop Jackson, who anticipated Dean's so-called strategy of waiting for the big delegate states to start running, got flattened in PA.

Second, it happened in 2000, when Al Gore, after narrowly outperforming Bradley in IA and NH, beat him like an old rug in something like 15 or 20 primaries.

In other words, when you win IA and NH, you're sitting in the catbird seat.

WIN-HUNGRY DEMS READY FOR JFK

Howard Dean's strategy according to Neel is to lose 15 straight and then win the Wisconsin Primary on Feb. 17. Does this even deserve comment? This guy Dean is a spring training phenom who can't hit the major league curve ball. So far, he's a guy who says he has a lot of supporters but who doesn't win elections. There's a difference between running for president and running your mouth.

Rank and file Democrats, who have consistently shown a better strategic sense of the upcoming Nov. election than either the pundits or the national party leadership, are going to bring the nominating process to a rapid conclusion. It doesn't take a graduate degree in political consulting to realize that Democrats talking smack about each other is not the way to beat George Bush.

North Dakota Dems are apparently already for trending heavily for Kerry, even before he can wade through the snow drifts to get up there and campaign. And I think late deciders in South Carolina and Oklahoma are going to come to the same conclusion. Bush is beatable. And since you can't beat somebody with nobody, the sooner we pick a nominee, the sooner we can start beating him.

Prediction: By Feb. 5, the Anybody-But-Kerry Movement will consist of Howard Dean and--maybe--his wife Judy.

PRAYING FOR AN EARLY-ROUND KNOCKOUT

The NYT reports that political pros are breathing a sigh of relief as Kerry moves into position to seize the nomination. But I think the rank and file share this feeling, and would like nothing more than a quick finish to the intra-party wrangle so that Kerry can get on with the job of beating George Bush. If we were Republicans, we would already be calling on the other candidates to get the hell out of the race and endorse Kerry.

Dean's bizarre decision to take a pass on the next seven contests is even goofier the Lieberman fantasy that he could bypass Iowa and still build up "joe-mentum." Dean continues to dominate the news, but for all the wrong reasons. He hasa strong, loyal, but comparatively small base of support nationwide which he could best leverage in a multi-candidate contest. By failing to advertise, however, he leaves himself at the mercy of the free media, which is not going to be very merciful. As the field quickly narrows, he will likely find himself overwhelmed when he tries to take on Kerry one-on-one.

Kerry's NH bounce has not been measured in any of the polls and yet he is winning or in easy striking distance in MO, AZ, NC and OK. Dean is running third or worse in all three.

A catastrophic meltdown of the Dean Campaign, comparable to the void left by Muskie's withdrawal from the race in 1972 or the quick extermination of Tsongas's chances in 1992, will leave a crack of daylight open for Edwards or Clark if either can actually beat Kerry somewhere.

As I've said before, however, finishing third or below in the New Hampshire Primary does not augur well. Here is a complete list of candidates who failed to win or place in NH since 1972: Sam Yorty, Birch Bayh, Fred Harris, Sargent Shriver, John Glenn, Jesse Jackson, George McGovern (2nd campaign), Jerry Brown, Fritz Hollings, Alan M. Cranston, Reubin Askew, Paul Simon, Jesse Jackson (2nd campaign), Al Gore, Bruce Babbitt, Gary Hart (2nd campaign), Bob Kerrey. Tom Harkin and Jerry Brown.

Only Jesse Jackson and Jerry Brown came back to play a role in subsequent primaries. Neither was ever a serious contender. On track record, the race should be between Kerry and Dean, but Dean seems to be giving it away.

Edwards and Clark argue they will emerge from the ranks of the also-rans because they are more electable than Kerry. This claim is belied by Kerry's success in IA and NH--two states that will definitely be in play in November--and by the recent Newsweek poll that shows Kerry alone beating George Bush. The real battle for the "South" is not for the 168-vote region itself; most of that belongs to George Bush and neo-confederate GOP. Clinton, who did as well as any Democrat can reasonable expect to do, won only 39 southern electoral votes, and would have won anyway if these votes had gone to Bush.

Missouri is far more representative of the kind of state the Dems need to win than either Oklahoma, which last voted Democratic for Truman, or South Carolina which, as Fritz Hollings wistfully recalled, "we carried for Kennedy." (Note: He didn't mean the 1980 Kennedy Campaign, where Joe Trippi cut his teeth, but rather the 1960 Kennedy Campaign, whose living veterans are doing well if they still have teeth.)

Remember, we ran a southerner last time, a died in the wool son of a son of the South, and didn't carry a single state except the one that was stolen, and that was won as much my snowbird transplants as by anyone whistling Dixie on the way to the polls. It would be nice to carry some southern states. But since Clark and Edwards have won a grand total of one between them (and that by a razor-thin margin), I don't think they are in great shape to lecture John Kerry on electability.

If the Reps could get enthusiastic about Arnold Schwazenegger--a pro-gay, pro-abortion, pro-gun control philanderer married to a Kennedy--can't we as a party overlook whatever flaws we think with see in John Kerry and get solidly behind a winner?

A LITTLE HISTORY

The last time the back-to-back winner of IA and NH failed to win the nomination was never.

No one finishing third or lower has ever gotten a whiff of the nomination. The closest also-ran to make it to the late primaries was Jerry Brown in 1992.

Kerry, wisely, doesn't wish to be known as a front-runner. He's been there, done that, and damn near got pushed out of the race. However, he has a mortal lock on, at a minimum, a plurality of the five Feb 3. primaries, and a majority of the delegates. While it seems unlikely he'll win all five plus the two caucus states, it is difficult to point to a state where he will lose.

TWO-HORSE RACE

It looks like Kerry and Dean the rest of the way, with the red-faced doc doing a heel-nipping imitation of Bill Bradley or Jerry Brown until his cash runs out.

SC and the other Feb 3 states seem to offer hope to the rest of the field, but I think it's an illusion. Historically, third or lower in NH is a ticket to the boneyard. What Clark, Edwards and Lieberman are fighting over isn't worth having.

Even second place in NH is rarely a bargain. Dean has none of the advantages of a Mondale, or a Bush, or a Dole, who survived NH as a a heavily favored boxer shakes off a lucky punch. Clinton erased Tsongas's home field advantage by trouncing him in the southern states; Dean is leaving, not returning to, his geographical base.

Kerry does not especially excite the Dems (except when they see polls, like the latest Newsweek Web exclusive, that show him beating Bush) but neither does he turn them off. At worst, he's a Democratic Bob Dole; at best, he's a Ronald Reagan, uniting the party from one wing.

Given his advantages of money and organization and intensity, Dean SHOULD have won Iowa. He definitely should win in NH, which is practically home turf. Having failed in one, and apparently about to fail in the other, it's very hard to see how he will be beat Kerry in very many of the upcoming primaries. As the field narrows, his 25-30% base will look less and less impressive.

HOW BIG IS NH?

Granite State boosters would have you believe the NH Primary is determinative of the nomination. It's not. The Democratic winner in New Hampshire has secured the nomination just about half the time. On the GOP side, the eventual nominee won NH nine of twelve times.

Year NH Winner Nominee
1952 Kefaufer Stevenson
1956 Kefaufer Stevenson
1964 Lodge Goldwater
1968 Johnson Humphrey
1972 Muskie McGovern
1984 Hart Mondale
1992 Tsongas Clinton
1996 Buchanan Dole
2000 McCain Bush

Nevertheless, NH is huge. The winner enjoys a free media bath. More important, the public actually looks at this free media.

The ability to consolidate gains after NH mostly depends upon whether the press and public agree that the candidate, whether they support him or not, has the basic qualifications to sit in the White House. The week after NH is not the best time for a Gary Hart or Pat Buchanan to face any lingering doubts about his fitness to hold the job.

Like Gore, Kerry is a combination underdog/frontrunner. On the one hand, he has been spared the brutal hammering NH (and the boys on the bus) give candidates who hold the lead for too long. On the other, If he wins NH, he will enjoy the basic presumption that--like him or dislike him--he is fit for the presidency. No one in the NH field except for Joseph Lieberman enjoys that presumption.
And Lieberman is having trouble beating Al Sharpton.

The margin of victory is relatively unimportant; Ford, Buchanan and Gore all got a big bounce, despite winning by only a point or two. I don't believe Kerry will win by a large margin; New Hampshire voters like to take the mickey out of a guy. But he should win it, and that's the name of the game.

Kerry is and always has been the real front-runner in this race. NH is opening night on Broadway. If he can make it there, he can make it anywhere.

BORING IS BETTER

All of the media--from the hard-core Bush partisans at Fox News to the anonymous and generally fair-minded print reporters for local newspapers--were disappointed by the Democrat's Debate.

I wasn't.

Like a political Convention, the real purpose of these debates is not to make news but to showcase the Democrat Party's advantages over George Bush and the GOP.

In John Kerry, the Democrats have a prospective nominee who, having secured the lead again, is unlikely to lose it. He is personally the most experienced campaigner, and he is surrounded by risk-averse professionals whose techniques and strategic insights are very similar to those of Team Bush.

Kerry's position today is similar to Gore's in 2000, although Kerry is actually in better shape, facing multiple weak Democratic opponents instead of a single formidable opponent in Tom Bradley. And unlike Gore, Kerry seems better able to shrug off and ignore the sneers and jeers of the pundit class which tried, and failed, to drive a stake through his heart before Iowa. Since most of these pundits lean toward or embrace Bush, Kerry's ability to stay on message should serve him well against Bush.

George Bush can be beat. One way to do it is to keep the ball on the ground, make sure-handed tackles, and convert third-downs. That's what I think we are about to see from Kerry.

HOW KERRY IS LIKE DUKAKIS

He's going to win the nomination.

Howard Dean, all kidding aside, is a goner. He'll never get back over the threshhold of acceptability again. Even if campaign manages show signs of life, a single well-timed 30-second spot will ruin him all over again. Tom Eagleton had to leave the race when it was revealed he'd had electroshock treatments for mental illness. To the average voter, Dean is simply too crazy to be president. Is this fair? Of course not. But there it is.

Wesley Clark has never held elective office. That's a lot for voters to swallow. There is almost no precedent unless you count Washington, Grant and Eisenhower, which I don't think you can. These presidents led an entire nation of citizen-soldiers through wars with earth-shattering consequences. There have been many generals elected to the presidency, but they almost all had extensive electoral experience.

John Edwards is similarly light on experience. With the sole exceptions of George Bush and Spiro Agnew, every candidate for president or vice president since JFK has brought at least a dozen years of experience to the job.

In other words, voters would have to do something they have rarely done to support either Clark or Edwards against Kerry. To be sure, voters are looking for a winner and might be persuaded that the Democrats need a southerner on the ticket. But where is the evidence that Clark, who has never carried anything, can carry Arkansas? Or that Edwards, who squeaked past an unpopular incumbent in a single election, could carry his own state. These men may be from Dixie, but neither one is a John Breaux or Fritz Hollings who could be relied upon to carry at least one southern state.

With Dean imploding and everyone else struggling for traction, John Kerry doesn't have do much more than run out the clock. Heading into the Feb. 3 multi-state contests with back-to-back wins, he's going to be very, very hard to stop.

LAST MAN STANDING

George Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger prove that anyone can get elected to anything, regardless of qualification. Any of the Democratic candidates, even Al Sharpton, is much more qualified than the ignorant prejudiced killer, George Bush.

Unfortunately, if your daddy isn't a president, however, the standards are higher. Iowa voters, who are not so terribly different than any others, looked at the field and found each of the Democrats except John Kerry somehow lacking in the stature needed to first, beat George Bush, and second, be president.

Dean's manic cheerleader screaming over his dismal third-place finish was as undignified as anything I've ever seen a presidential candidate do on television. i suspect it may permanently diminish him. Even on paper, he barely qualifies as presidential material, and acting like an escaped gorilla who got missed by the animal tranquilizer dart isn't going to recommend him further to the voters.

Edwards benefited from staying above the food fight. He is bright, handsome and as persuasive as they come. But his political resume is thin. With the exception of Bush, the voters have never gone for a presidential candidate with fewer than 12 years of relevant job experience.

The Iowa voters were shopping for a winner, like so many hard-bitten pros in the back of a smoke-filled room. They saw in Dickie G. a victim of child abuse, kicked around by tough guys Newtie Gingrich, Tom Delay and Karl Rove. They felt sorry for him, but they weren't going to vote for a loser.

Iowa was the worst possible outcome for General Clark, who was already losing back votes he had taken away from Kerry. His "junior officer" crack about Kerry may have been the best he come up with, but it seems to say that career military service is better preparation than four terms in the Senate, and I don't think most voters will agree. You have to go back to Zachary Taylor to find a general with Clark's experience winning the White House. Clark may well have it in him to be an Eisenhower or a Grant, but history didn't afford him that opportunity. As it is, he has been elected to...exactly nothing. Even a term or two in congress or the Arkansas state house would have reassured voters that he can do more than be commander in chief.

Clark, Edwards, Dean: Excellent vice-presidential running mates for someone.

Only Joseph Lieberman can match (perhaps even exceed) Kerry's preparation for a national campaign and service in the White House. I have purchased a large clothes-pin for my nose against the off chance that I might have to vote for him, but I think the voters will handicap his chances much as they did Dick Gephardt's. I don't care much for his pro-war, pro-corporation voting record, but I especially don't like his campaign style, which has turned nasty exactly four years too late. In his desire to be known as a nice guy and good family man, he allowed Bush and Cheney to jump all over Al Gore. This year's VP needs to steal a page from Howard Dean and attack the GOP like a one-man pack of dogs.

If Kerry wins NH, and I sure wouldn't bet against him this morning, it's hard to see how he can be stopped. Only Clark and Dean have the cash to compete in the later primaries, which start in two weeks, and even their resources could dry up fast. I don't think I'm alone in wanting to see the Dems settle on a nominee quickly, and I've got no problem whatsoever with John F. Kerry.

IOWA MORNING LINE

The race is not always to the swift, nor victory to the strong. But that’s the way to bet.

IOWA MORNING LINE
Kerry 4-5 Money, moxie and momentum
Dean 2-1 Top stable; can win backing up
Edwards 9-2 Best chance play; some nice guys finish 1st
Gephardt 4-1 Nothing left for stretch run




NEW HAMPSHIRE MORNING LINE
Kerry 9-5 Bounces high onto home turf
Dean 3-2 Not to be dismissed
Edwards 9-2 IA works put back in hunt
Clark 4-1 Lugged out last week
Lieberman 20-1 Hits like a girl
Kucinich 50-1 No traction ever
Sharpton 99-1 Fahgitaboutit

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has already won the crucial get-out-vote contest against former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and his other rivals according to Sunday's copyrighted Des Moines Register poll. While the overall public opinion tally shows a close race, Kerry is crushing the opposition among those who definitely plan to attend the caucuses. Amazingly, he’s beating last week’s frontrunner, Rep. Dick Gephardt by a factor of 2-1.

Candidate All
Definite
Caucus-goers
Kerry 26 33
Dean 20 21
Edwards 23 19
Gephardt 18 16
© Des Moines Register Margin of error for all voters, +/- 4%; Margin of error for definite caucus attendees is higher.

A later Zogby survey has Kerry and Dean in a statistical dead heat, but probably more significantly, it shows Kerry continuing to surge, enjoying his best numbers on Sunday, the last day of polling. Still, Dean figures to finish no worse than second because of the intensity of his base, and because of his ample cash. Last-minute automated phone calls, letters and emails from his stunning roster of endorsers (Gore, Harkin, Bradley) won’t hurt either. His campaign is in a free fall toward his hard anti-war base, but that is no small number among peace-loving Iowa Democrats. And Dean continues to battle against damaging news cycles, most recently with a character reference from Jimmy Carter. The daytime high in Ames, IA was 5 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday; intensity matters.

North Carolina Senator John Edwards, despite an impressive and well-timed surge of popularity, cannot match any of the other candidates in organization or money. Inevitably, many of his recent converts will spend caucus day at home. Nevertheless, he is in a statistical tie with John Kerry among all voters and endorsed by the aforementioned Des Moines Register. Iowa voters are clearly looking for a winner, and seem prepped to give Edwards a nice bounce out of the caucuses. A third-place finish will make Edwards the hands-down expectations game victor.

Dick Gephardt is, was, and always has been, a has-been. Unlike Kerry and Edwards, who merely voted for the Iraq resolution, Gephardt was a cheerleader for the war, and this year’s Democrats aren’t buying that. For one thing, if backing Bush on the war was such a hot strategy, why is Tom Delay Majority Leader? Gephardt’s labor machine is mostly a PR creation, lacking as it does support from the most politically sophisticated unions. S.E.I.U. and A.F.C.S.M.E, the huge public employee unions, are backing Dean. Labor will look out for labor first, Dick Gephardt second.

NH is all about the bounce, and if Kerry can win IA, he should romp on his New England home turf. The Dean Campaign is hella strong, and those who look for him to implode are probably smoking dope. Edwards is moving into a TV state at exactly the right time, and could win it all. If he does, look for his handsome mug in the encylopedia under the entry, "timing is everthing." Kerry has started to win back votes from Wesley Clark, and his early supporters seem to be suffering from some buyer's remorse, as other candidates remind them that Clark has never been elected to anything, ever. Like Forbes, Buchanan, Perot and others before him, Clark is beginning to get whipsawed by his lack of job experience. Still, I hate to bet against him; he seems in many ways to be just what the doctor ordered for the sick Democratic Party.

John Kerry, senior senator and a hero in both war and peace, is winning this thing by a process of elimination

IOWA MORNING LINE