EARLY ROUNDS TO KERRY

Bush is playing defense two days after dropping a very premature $10 million in TV advertising. When Election Day gets close, the Bush Campaign is going to wish it had that money back. True, they are loaded, but there's never enough. Somebody at the RNC should ask Joe Trippi what he thinks about dumping early money on TV for Dean (Hint: he calls it his biggest mistake).

Moreover, the Reps are probably going to wish they hadn't pulled the trigger so quickly with the 9/11 issue. Early exposure and controversy drains the issue of its emotional punch.

Instead of blaming the ad agency and getting on with their lives, they allowed the victim's outrage to become a two-day story. Their failure to do so proves how central 9/11 is to their strategy. As he did on the issue of gay marriage, Kerry deftly accused Bush of "trying to change the subject [from job losses] by waving the 9/11 shirt.

This campaign will be fought primarily in the free media. At this early stage of the campaign--well before undecided and swing voters have tuned in--the main value of paid advertising is to stimulate favorable news coverage. Ten million bucks lighter, the Bush Campaign achieved only limited success, while John Kerry, saving every penny until it matters most, has matched or beat the president through the last few news cycles.

Tomorrow's chat shows are studded with prospective John Kerry running mates, evidence that Bush has so far failed to frame the debate.