FAGITABOUTIT

It's Clark/Dean, Dean/Clark. Just gots to be. If you can imagine a 2004 victory with Howard Dean and his enthusiasts frozen out, you should be writing for the moving pictures.

Between them, Clark and Dean have sucked all the air and damn near all the cash right out of the room. The other guys may not realize it, but they are pounding sound down at a rathole.

Edwards is holding out hope that SC will save him, but SC is a million miles away right now. How do you get there after getting waxed in IA and NH?

John Kerry, talkin up how he was against Nixon--Dude, do you realize what century that was?

Dickie G., giving scratchy-voiced interviews, announcing the endorsement of the Brotherhood of Horseshoers, AFL-CIO?

And Lieberman, that putz. Talkin' smack about other Democrats and schmoozin' up to Big Pharma--that's a nice combination. Moderates and conservatives are jumping that leaky ship by the MILLIONS to get on board with the general.

Good citizens of IA--get your act together and show up for Wes and Howie. We gotta dump these other guys like so much waste matter.

FRAGILE FRONTRUNNER

Wesley Clark leads the most recent CNN/Gallup, Newsweek and CBS News/New York Times polls, but never by more than the 5-6 point margin of error.

I haven't heard his campaign managers trying to tamp down expectations, but I think they'd better start. Clark could lead the national polls all the way to the Saturday of the Iowa Delegate Selection Caucus and still finish down in Sharpton-ville.

Clark has apparently snapped up some of the pros from the Graham Campaign in Iowa. Frankly, I think it was a mistake to hire "name" organizers, which the boys and girls on the bus will process as an attempt to win the state. Instead, Clark would have done better to have:

1. Inserted a skeleton crew of unknowns into the state and claim to be running an all-volunteer effort.
2. Used an out-of-state phone bank and the Internet to obtain pledges to participate in the caucuses.
3. Drawn attention of the press to NH and SC with frequent visits and TV commercials.
4. Flooded the state with workers in the final eight days if the pledge count should reach a competitive number.

Dean is riding comfortably on the Gen.'s left shoulder, with plenty of oomph left for a stretch run. He has the advantages of time, money and campaign organization which, in IA, are pretty much the whole ball game. Gephardt and Kerry have the same advantages, although less cash, and Edwards may elbow his way into the top three out of sheer desperation. I continue to believe that Kucinich will surprise in Iowa as well. Even Smokin' Joe Lieberman's sad-assed campaign is a threat to Clark.

Clark is ahead for several reasons, but the most important is his ability to command free media and to look good on TV when he gets it. His lean handsome features got him the job at CNN as military analyst, outpacing other former generals and admirals with similar insights to offer but whose baggy-eyed faces betray a few too many nights in the officer's club.

However, television is nowhere less important than Iowa, where the only sensible use for it is as a direct-response/800 number vehicle for goosing up pledge card count. And even used that way, it's a two-edged sword, because if you fail, the whole world knows how hard you tried.

The Newsweek poll tested both assisted and unassisted name recognition. Gephardt and Kerry, in particular, vaulted to the front of the pack once people were reminded of who they are. Because voters WILL now who the major candidates are by election day, this may have significant predictive value.

The Clark Campaign at this moment is a dazzlingly beautiful soap bubble. It is up to him to turn it into something that can not only fly, but land and take off.

DREAM TICKET #9016

Today, I like Clark-Gephardt.

Clark is the Yuppie General, and lights up the night with highly-educated voters--McGovern-Hart-Dean Democrats.

While he has great symbolic appeal to Reagan/Clinton Democrats (not least because he is one), Clark is not what you could call a regular guy. He's too smart, too well-educated, and too much a driven over-achiever.

Gephardt would provide great policy depth on domestic issues and, most important, a visceral and proven link to the proverbial "Kansas City Milkman" that wire service reporters used to be taught to angle their stories toward. Gephardt's father was a Kansas City Milkman. His AFL-CIO credentials are the very strongest and would galvanize the Fed behind this ticket.

Plus--and here's the beauty part--win Ark. and Mo., and you win.

Finally, unlike Holy Joe, Dickie G. would not be afraid to swing that good old running mate hatchet.

CLARK GANG-BANG

Anyone--including the oh-yeah-ing Note--who thinks that Clark isn't the frontrunner for the nomination should ask any of the other Democratic candidates.

To the extent that any undecided voters were watching, I think the overall impression would have been of a pack of small dogs nipping at a big man's heels. Overall impression number two: The Democrats couldn't find their ass with both hands and a roadmap.

The General has two things that any campaign would give its eye-teeth for--cash and high poll numbers. On the other hand, he has yet to build a disciplined campaign organization that follows orders. One would think he will be able to do that.

The Clark Campaign should start tearing pages out of the Schwarzenegger playbook--fast.

1. Severely limit access to the candidate, esp. by print reporters.

2. Duck the next debate, or maybe all of them. Screw Terry McAulliffe. If Clark is ahead, the oldest rule of politics says duck.

3. Push the softball coverage. More Larry King, etc.

4. Put him in highly-controlled availabilities--officer's clubs inside military bases, invitee-only airplane hangars, fact-finding tours to Afghanistan and Kosovo.

5. Keep campaigning in Arkansas, in front of 100% pro-Clark crowds. These are great venues and produce the same 30 seconds of national TV he could get anywhere else. Plus, it's never too early to start winning this state.

6. This is not rocket science. Get on the phone and call people. Stuff them into a space that's two sizes too small and fill it with color, action and riotous applause lines. Rent the U.S.S. Hornet for the night and pack the flight deck with crazed Clark fans. Put Clark under a spotlight wearing his dress uniform, with campaign ribbons and decorations.

TAX THE RICH, NOT US.

No time for tears. The Iowa delegate selection caucus is less than 15 weeks away, the New Hampshire Primary perhaps 120 days out.

The California hijack was a huge coup for Bush. As the last major election before the primary season, it makes the GOP look like champions defending a title belt.

Admitting one's failings is the first step to getting better. I'll start.

I handicapped this race with a romantic faith in working class Democrats that was not justified by the results.

I accused the GOP analysts of not looking past the Rotary Club and the Country Club, but I committed the same error in mirror image, supposing that some guy struggling underneath a house with a pipe wrench would be as tolerant of immigrants, minorities and feminists as the inhabitants of the Faculty Lounge.

Let's not mince words here. We lost this election because we lost the votes of of people whose kids will be bumped from college by immigrants with better grades and by minorities with worse grades. The UC system, which is supposed to admit students with 3.3 GPAs, is turning away those with less than 4.0 while suspending plans to open a new campus. The state university system is restricting admissions. And students are standing up in community college classrooms.

This is the old Nixon-Agnew strategy. First, create scarcity. Then, turn the races against one another. It works.

We lost the election when we lost the battle to tax the rich in the Legislature. The GOP didn't blink, and we did.

We lost the votes of those who struggle to pay the increased car taxes. But the car tax was essential once we failed to tax Big Oil and those with incomes of $400,000 and above.

Once Democrats are reduced to fighting for scraps of inadequate revenue to protect the most vulnerable members of society--children of migrants, the homeless, the uninsured, battered women and the blind--we have already lost the PR battle for the middle class.

Like voters since the time of Thuycidides, the middle class asks, "what's in it for me?"

Above all, we lost because, while the Democrats were unified, the GOP was more unified. If McClintock claimed to be from the "Republican Wing of the Republican Party," nobody heard him because virtually every GOP official and contributor got in line behind a candidate who opposes most of the key planks in the 2000 party platform. Can you picture us doing the same for a Zell Miller?

The Republicans in 2000, 2002 and now 2003 have exploited a mighty unifying theme--no new taxes.

In 2004, we need one of our own: Tax the Rich, Not Us.

STORMY WEDNESDAY

Graham gone, Clark stumbling and Karl Rove hands our ass to us in the Golden State.

To friends who worked for Davis and Bustamante, thanks for fighting the good fight. It's not over, because it's never over.

To the other side, credit where it's due:

So 'ere's to you, Creepy-Reepy, at your home in the Southland
You're pore benighted 'eathan, but a first-class fightin' man.

So 'ere's to you, Creepy-Reepy, an' your friends which are no more,
If we 'adn't lost some messmates we would 'elp you to deplore;
But give an' take's the gospel, an' we'll call the bargain fair,
You big white bounding beggar, you bagged the Golden Bear!

Last night was a triumph of the no more Mr. Nice Guy school of public relations. By rigidly restricting press access and offering up iresistable visuals night after night, they won this thing in the free media.

What can we learn from Creepy-Reepy?

Lesson One: increase dramatically the amount of money devoted to scheduling and advance. Learn to create "reality commercials"--visual events stuffed with adoring fans, color, music, spectacle. A few dozen gnarly old business agents in a crappy-looking union hall doesn't cut any more.

Team Big Guy played the media like a big bass fiddle.

Lesson Two: Aggression is good. Accuse the other side of raising dirty money and running a dirty campaign. Then do it yourself, big-time. Cruz took the cash but spent it mostly on insipid hooray for me advertising. It's never to early to start assassinating the other guy's character. Davis and Bustamante were both slimed, early and often. Attack commercials against Cruz worked because they came early and shaped the media coverage.

Lesson Three: Elections are won by the side that promises the least amount of pain. Sacto Dems should move a bill quickly to not only rescind the car tax, but lower below its previous level. Let Arnold figure out how to balance the budget.

Lesson Four: Time the Big Guy Recall right. Same time, next year.

THE FUNDAMENTAL THINGS APPLY

Listening to Bush smirk about the California Recall today shook me up some--Rove has gotta be whispering the latest numbers in his ears--so I went back to my charts and took another look.

1. The Oct 2 Field Poll showed Schwarzenegger beating Bustamante by five points among women, a minus five gender gap.

2. The Sept 9. Field Poll showed Bustamante beating Schwarzenegger by 13 points among women. I picture a 15-20 point gender gap. California women just don't play that unwanted tongue down the throat and fingers under the clothes jazz.

3. About half of the pre-election Green and Other preferences will shift back to major party choices. This will benefit the Dems.

4. McClintock in the race helps Cruz. If you don't believe me, ask a Republican.

5. Heavy turnout favors Democrats. Always.

I stand by my sheet.

MORNING LINE

Question One

Recall YES 4-5 Arnold slump not quite enough
Recall NO 5-4 Great late charge could do it

Question Two

BUSTAMANTE Yellow-dog Dems, Sen. Tom, combine for Cruz win
SCHWARZENEGGER Won't survive shootout at Gender Gap
MCCLINTOCK Best chance play; Christian Right could make it close

If the election turns on the question, "do we believe the charges about Dirty Arnold," the Democrats will win, either by defeating the recall, by electing Cruz, or both.

If the election turns on the question, "do I want to pay an increased car tax," the Reps will win.

Since both questions are in the wind, the race seems damn close.

No reasonable polling data is available. The Knight Ridder poll missed most of the reaction to the Dirty Arnold stories. The political parties have every motive to lie about their private polls, and do.

Eighteen points behind last Wednesday, the NO Campaign has more ground to make up than Cruz. Even given my hypothetical ten-point drop in Dirty Arnold's numbers, this doesn't seem like quite enough to sink the Recall, since many of Scwarzenegger's defectors will hang in to vote Yes on the Recall and Yes on McClintock.

On the other hand, Bustamante's 26% looks pretty good in the face of an Arnold free-fall from a high of 36%. I would guess that the ex-Arnold voters who switched in the last five days will split something like McClintock, 5%, Bustamante, 2%, other or not voting 3%.

A major imponderable is the fate of the 22% that were headed for someone other than the top three candidates. I believe the total "other" vote will shrink to half that number, say 11%. Third party vote always shrinks on election day, and the same should be true of 4th through 125th parties as well.

Dirty Arnold figures to come in third among these late-switching voters. So this 15% breaks something like Cruz, 6%, Mac 5%, Arnold 4%.

Final numbers: Bustamante, 34%, Schwarzenegger, 30%, McClintock, 25%, Other 11%.

Recall: Yes: 52%
No: 48%

CRUZ MISSILE

Sunday 10/5/2003 6:08:14 AM

Let's review:

Before the Arnold firestorm broke, the recall was winning 57-39, an 18-point margin. On the replacement ballot, Arnold was ahead by ten points, 36% to 26%.

I am guessing--and it is a guess--that The Big Guy has been in a 2-2.5 point free fall since Friday. The day-by-day numbers from the Knight-Ridder NBC poll provide some support for this, but mainly, I just feel that to the extent the election is a referendum on whether you should reach out and grab somebody's private parts whenever you feel like it, Team Big Guy is in bad shape.

On this basis, Cruz takes him on Tuesday even if NONE of the former Arnold voters go to Bustamante. The recall vote is less clear, but it seems that the NO vote will rise almost linearly with the Arnold drop.

Ironically for both the Davis and Bustamante strategists' predictions, voters in the Knight-Ridder poll seem far more likely to vote NO on the recall if they believe that Bustamante will be elected--in large measure because of Cruz's sky-high negatives but also because the pointlessness of replacing a Democratic governor with a Democratic Lt. Governor brings out the latent opposition to the recall itself.

Absentee ballots are a huge factor; perhaps 1/5 of Califonria has voted already. The Dems--led by Cruz and the Tribes--got wise to themselves this year with a well-executed statewide absentee ballot application mailing and automated telephone call campaign. This will narrow the typical GOP edge in absentee voting. Still, figure the Reps to add at least a point or two to their overall vote total from the absentees.

Hence, a dead-heat on election day means a GOP win. But I don't think it's a dead heat, esp. on the replacement ballot, where Cruz will hold and probably build on his yellow-dog Democrat base, as the Team Big Guy plane noses earthward.

The LA Times (memo to PR whiz Rob Stutzman: they buy ink by the barrel) reports four more women with distrubing and third-party verified tales of Arnold rooting around underneath blouses and skirts.

You have to love the smell of bimbo eruptions in the morning.

Bottom line: I see lots of extra gin and tonics consumed on Wed., as stunned GOP country-clubbers gaze at their caddies, waitresses and busboys, suspecting them of not telling the truth when they told them they would vote for Arnold.

BONEHEAD PLAY OF THE WEEK

Women gave The Big Guy the lead; women can take it away.

So sayeth Bill Schneider, who one would almost suspect of reading beatinggeorgebush.blogspot.com

Punch the Monkey

While the state Dems and the Tribes stand around with their fingers up their nose, Moveon.org is finally doing the needful with this tasty little 30-second spot.

inexpensively but professionally produced, the commercial drives the Big Guy's words into his heart like a stake, while humanizing the despicable nature of his dirty mind by a simple slide-show of different women who could be your wife, your mother, your sister or...you.

Fortunately, the crappy economy means that there is time available on both broadcast and cable for said spots.

Now we need the Tribes to unbuckle some major wampum and get that Nazi spot on the air. No wonder he doesn't like Indians,--he believes in The Master Race!

Please, if anyone is listening, hear this: Break Schwarzenegger and you break the Recall. Pull all that gauzy feel-good issue oriented crap from the air and back a dump-truck full of waste products up against this guy and unload.

I could produce this spot in 20 minutes:

Arnold Schwarzenegger. (Spinning swastika/pic of Big Guy)

Likes Hitler. (Show NYT quote)
Gropes Women. (Show LAT quote)
Doesn't know squat about California's budget. (Show police/sheriffs against recall)


Vote NO on Recall. Vote NO on Schwarzenegger

Crossing the Chasm

Negative stories about The Big Guy have crossed from newsprint to broadcast, where they are finally having some effect on the voters. While this is good news for all Dems, my gut is says it's better news for Cruz and Sen. Tom than for the Governor.

The Field Poll, concluded Wednesday, shows an eight point increase in women voting for the recall.

And how much was the recall winning by before the LA Times story broke?

Seven points.

I predict a "secret ballot" effect, where GOP women tell their husbands they're voting for Arnold and then don't. Of course, other women, such as Mrs. High, will tell their husbands that if they even mention this steroid-popping Nazi's name, they'll throw a phone book at him, but these more outspoken women were probably not big Terminator fans to begin with.

The Dems need to get tough, character-assaulting ads on the air NOW. I picture an animated swastika. And a court-mandated class for sexual batterers, with tattooed lowlifes sullenly listening to rape crisis counselors.

Huffington does right thing

Now if she could just slap some sense into her pal Camejo.

Nice wise-acre comment from Richie Ross, who pretends to see Cruz movement by comparing the skewed Gallup Poll to a more reasonable-sounding one from the LA Times.

Looks like the Tribes, if they really stand to lose $1 billion under a Big Guy administration, would fight back a little. A statewide attack mailing would be good.

I hope both of my readers are listening--it's time to dump a major bucket of puke on Arnold's head. The word ain't gonna get out via the free media.